Byline: Kim Mikus
Santa's arrival at the malls kicks off the official start to the holiday shopping season.
After several seasons of lackluster sales, retailers are hoping for a bang this holiday season.
Forecasters predict holiday sales should come in between 4.5 percent and 6 percent higher than last year, said Anne Brouwer, senior partner with Chicago-based McMillan/ Doolittle retail consultancy.
One aspect that's similar to recent years that's could hurt overall sales is that there isn't a strong "must have" Christmas item.
"There's not one killer new toy or game out right now," Brouwer said.
Cabbage Patch Kids and electronic games kept shoppers waiting in lines to snatch the hottest toys in the past. And four or five years ago, cashmere was the "must have," Brouwer added.
There's no hot ticket item. A national shopping survey found that stockings will be stuffed with everything from boots and brooches to electronic games and leopard print items.
The Shopping in America survey found that many of the popular toys are the same as last year - Strawberry Shortcake, Care Bears and Hello Kitty. These are all comeback toys from years past.
Online shopping is expected to again increase this season, according to forecasters.
"We'll see strong performance from Internet channels. I've seen expectations for e-commerce to increase 20 to 30 percent," Brouwer said.
Meanwhile, the malls are looking for a positive season. "We're still optimistic," said Woodfield General Manger Marc Strich. "We've had growth all year and our occupancy has never been higher"
Another positive is that there are two additional shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, he said.
"There are 29 shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, two days more than 2003 and the most since 2001," said John Melaniphy III, senior vice president of Melaniphy & Associates Inc., a Chicago-based retail consulting firm.
His firm is anticipating average holiday sales growth of 3.5 percent to 4 percent.
Issues keeping this season in the "average range" are higher gasoline costs, higher heating bills, terrorist threats, the war and the Florida hurricanes.
There are some positives, though. Rising home values, the fact that there have been no terrorist acts and the stability President Bush brings after the election should bring some light to the season.
While the day after Thanksgiving is traditionally dubbed the busiest shopping day of the year, retailers have a closer eye on the week before the holiday.
"The weekend before Thanksgiving is big for retailers," Brouwer said.
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